Import Function

ESTIMATING AN IMPORT FUNCTION FOR TURKEY? Zelal KOTAN Mesut SAYGILI THE CENTRAL BANK OF THE commonwealth OF TURKEY Research Department Discussion Paper No: 9909 September, 1999 ? We would like to thank Hakan Berument for his comments and technical support during the study. The preliminary rakehelling drawing of this paper was presented in the third METU International economic science convocation in September, 1999. The views expressed in this paper atomic number 18 those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the Central money box of the commonwealth of Turkey. ABSTRACT This paper incorporates devil different seat specifications to estimate an aftermath demand function for Turkey. The estimation doing of the two rides is compared and contrasted for the point 1987Q1-1999Q1 by using quarterly data. The logical implication of variables that change consequence demand is individually and jointly tested. Also, the incommensurate run ela sticities of the two models are compared. The head start model estimates bitations using the Engle-Granger approach. It is found that in the long run, income level, nominal relegate and tear rate, inflation rate and world-wide militia really affect spells. While worldwide reserves importantly affect writes, the import function is estimated to be expenditure and income inelastic.

In the short run, however, inflation reaping and growth of international reserves lose their significant conflict on imports and income cinch improves. In addition, the effect of wear and tear rate increases. Export growth a nd a dummy that captures the crisis in the s! econd half of 1998 and first quarter of 1999 are besides found to have significant effects on import growth in the short run. The second approach models import demand using the Bernanke-Sims morphological VAR method. The findings indicate that judge changes in the real depreciation rate and unanticipated changes in the income growth and real depreciation rate have significant effects on import demand growth. Income growth is...If you essential to get a lavish essay, order it on our website: OrderCustomPaper.com

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